Ethereum (ETH) remains poised as bulls struggle to break hard resistance at $1,700.
Currently trading at $1,640 – ETH continues to consolidate around the local support level at $1,650.
Tightening Bollinger bands in late December set the stage for an impressive rally into 2023 as ETH continues to chase after Bitcoin’s (BTC) strong New Year’s performance.
Driven on the back of positive macro sentiment from the US economy, ETH posted a 33% rally across January, and sensational +10% candles on January 12 smashed prices above $1,500.
Waves of volatility have characterized February. ETH has slowly ground up through two price levels to reach a level of support between $1,600 – $1,650.
Multiple runs against the current ceiling of resistance at $1,700 have been rejected. But local support has held, and ETH is now on the 20th day of consolidation.
What will ETH do over the next 24 hours?
Today’s chart structure suggests ETH could be heading for another test of $1,700. But be wary, another rejection here could force a breakdown of the lower trend line – a serious downside risk.
Bullish news surrounding the announcement that Genesis and Digital Currency Group have finally reached a preliminary agreement with creditors should help provide pressure to push higher.
Although, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s very public response to rumors of an SEC Ethereum staking ban has worried markets.
The recent test of support from the 21-Day SMA at $1,600 has given the upwards trajectory needed to make this happen.
A break above $1,700 (if flipped to support) could see a push up to $1,775. A historical resistance level that traders might remember from last September. This could act as a leg-up for a bigger target at $1,800.
But if the ceiling at $1,700 holds, things could get messy. This would break the current structure and could force a tumble down to $1,550. If bulls are unable to catch the falling knife here, downside risk could be $1,300.
With price action volatile, a conservative target of $1,750 (+8.5%) on the upside is sensible. The downside risk at $1,550 (-5.25%) is reasonable. This gives a Risk:Reward ratio of 1.61 – an attractive entry.
Ethereum On-Chain and Key ETH Indicators
Looking at the RSI 14, things have cooled off significantly over the past 20 days of consolidation. With a current reading of 47 – this bullish divergence could confirm the suspicion of another test at $1,700. It seems seller pressure could be easing.
Buy pressure clearly remains strong as consolidation continues to hold. With the RSI moving towards the oversold territory, it seems today could see moves up.
To seek further confirmation. on-chain analysis reveals a snapshot of current exchange activity.
The percentage balance of ETH sat ready to sell on exchanges continues to decrease into 2023. A bullish signal that shows the price is in strong accumulation amongst investors.
Furthermore, turning to net transfer volume from/to exchanges (how much ETH is being moved on and off the table). An uptick in ETH transfer inflow onto exchanges on Monday seems to have been the worst of local sell pressure.
Over the past 48 hours, it seems net transfers have reversed. With more ETH being moved off exchanges and into wallets than vice versa – a signal that there are no imminent dumps as buyer pressure takes hold.
On-chain thus re-affirms the idea that there will be a retest of $1,700, as speculators feel confident in current price action.
The MACD is sat at -3.04, with tangible bearish divergence. This signals to us that another $1,700 rejection could force cascading downside price action.
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